Regression

Just as a small note about the Pennant Race that just ended, I have to say that the seven game format helped the Red Sox not because of pitching, but because hitters started regressing to the averages. Statistically seven games may not be very significant, but when your 4-5-6 hitters hit over .500 for three games, there's a damn good chance that, since they are .300-.315 career hitters, they will regress to some average over the next four games. And what do you know? Hideki Matsui, ARod, Sheffield, all the Yankees bats that were hot went cold at the same time. Their overall statistics for the series probably look pretty decent because of the first three games. And they still lost. And Johnny Damon, who looked anxious in the first two games and was 1 for 24 or something like that, broke out with a big game seven at the right time. Let's say he got 32 AB's. And hit two home runs in Game 7. Over a full season with 640 or so AB's, pretty standard for a leadoff hitter in a potent lineup, that translates to 20 home runs. Guess how many homers Damon hit this year? Yup. 20. Now this isn't to say that a hitter, in seven games during the playoffs, will be guaranteed to hit exactly what he does during the regualar season. But you could say that Damon was due.

Consider that in a full seven game series, you get somewhere between 30 and 40 AB's. A .300 hitter will have 10 hits in a series. When most of your lineup burns away their statistical advantange by scoring 19 runs in a game, it's not that you're guaranteed to go cold, but the statistical possibility of scoring another 10 runs the next game is lowered. Of course, David Ortiz doesn't believe in statistics apparently. I'm just sayin is all.